Deutsche Bank forecasts that by 2030 central banks will hold Bitcoin alongside gold as a key reserve asset. According to the bank, the first cryptocurrency is taking on the role of the “gold of the 20th century”: rising demand and macro uncertainty are boosting interest in assets perceived as hedges against inflation and currency risks.
Price signals confirm this: this week, gold exceeded $4,050 per ounce for the first time, and Bitcoin set a new high above $126,000. Notably, on October 6 one kilogram of gold cost about the same—around $126,000. De-dollarization is accelerating the trend: the dollar’s share of reserves has fallen from 60% to 41% over 25 years, and net inflows into spot gold and Bitcoin ETFs in June reached record highs of $5 billion and $4.7 billion.
That said, the dollar won’t disappear entirely. JPMorgan expects additional demand for it of up to $1.4 trillion by 2027 due to stablecoins. Government approaches vary: Switzerland, Australia, and Japan are holding back; El Salvador, Bhutan, and Luxembourg are accumulating. “State wallets” hold 515,000 BTC (~$62.8 billion). The U.S. and Finland hold seized assets; the U.S. is discussing a strategic reserve, and Chainalysis estimates the volume of potentially seizable crypto at over $75 billion.